Brazil’s Minister of Finance, Dariou Durigan, has officially stated that prediction market platforms operate illegally in the country, failing to comply with local legislation and lacking proper regulation. “These prediction markets are not legal and are not regulated in Brazil. They do not comply with the betting market regulations,” the minister emphasized. According to the head of the ministry, such platforms violate both Brazilian gambling rules and financial market norms.
From the government’s perspective, these platforms disguise gambling as investments. The Secretary for Economic Reforms, Regis Dudena, explained: “This market began to present itself as a financial market, a securities market involving so-called derivatives. However, this ‘plagiarism’ carries a destructive potential, just like gambling. That is, it was sold as if it were not gambling to evade regulation and was presented as a security.”
Monetary Council Resolution
The key regulatory act is CMN Resolution No. 5,298, adopted by Brazil’s National Monetary Council. The document, signed by Ministers Dariou Durigan (Finance), Bruno Moretti (Planning), and Central Bank President Gabriel Galípolo, comes into force on May 4, 2026.
The resolution establishes clear restrictions for the derivatives market. Contracts may only have economic and financial variables as underlying assets. Permitted categories include price indices, economic indices, securities indices, interest rates, exchange rates, commodity prices, and financial assets.
At the same time, the document explicitly prohibits derivative contracts linked to sporting events (real or virtual), online games, as well as real or virtual events of a political, electoral, social, cultural, entertainment, or any other nature that does not constitute an economic-financial indicator.
Protecting Citizens’ Savings
Officials emphasize that this measure aims to protect the population from financial losses and prevent rising indebtedness. The Minister of the Civil House, Miriam Belchior, stated: “The measure to be announced today is aimed at preventing the development of a new gambling market, called the prediction market, and preventing its uncontrolled strengthening. From our perspective, if that happened, it would create enormous risks for the Brazilian population.”
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva had previously linked the growth of Brazilian family debt to the betting market (bets), and this decision is seen as a continuation of the policy to restrict unregulated activity.
Global Context
Brazil’s actions reflect growing worldwide pressure on the prediction market. According to government representatives, the country is following the example of more than 50 states that have already banned such types of bets, including France, Colombia, Argentina, and certain US states.
In Europe, Portugal and Hungary have also restricted access to Polymarket. In the United States, the company Kalshi was fined $1.4 million in 2022 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for operating without registration. Nevertheless, in America, Kalshi managed to overturn the ban in court and obtain the right to trade, leading to explosive market growth, especially after the 2024 presidential elections.
Scope of the Block
Initially, Minister Dariou Durigan announced the blocking of 28 platforms, but his press office later adjusted the number to 27. Among the blocked resources are Polymarket and Kalshi, as well as Predictlt, Palpita, Robinhood, and others.
It is noted that Kalshi was co-founded by Brazilian Luana Lopes Lara, who, after the company’s success, entered the Forbes list as the youngest self-made billionaire in the world.
Exceptions and Further Regulation
The resolution does not prohibit all forms of derivatives. Trades based on economic indicators (inflation, interest rates, exchange rates) may continue. Brazil’s B3 exchange plans to launch six new contracts on April 27, 2026, tied to the Ibovespa index, the real exchange rate, and bitcoin.
Responsibilities for developing additional rules and oversight have been assigned to the Brazilian Securities Commission (CVM). The Secretariat of Prizes and Betting of the Ministry of Finance and Anatel will be responsible for monitoring websites.
Conclusion
Brazil’s blocking of prediction market platforms demonstrates the state’s determination to protect citizens from unregulated financial fraud and gambling disguised as investments. The measures, based on the new Monetary Council resolution, aim to prevent the population’s debt burden and establish clear rules for the derivatives market. Brazil joins the global trend of restricting such platforms while preserving room for innovation within strictly defined economic parameters.