The first half of 2026 will go down in energy history as the moment of the final shift in hegemony. While the world previously talked about a mixed gas market, the cold, hard numbers of recent months have erased all illusions.
The United States didn't simply increase exports - it leapt forward. 32 million tons of LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) in three months. This is 39% more than a year earlier. And while others are stalling in crises, America is capturing market share with tactical audacity.
Let's look at the "Big Four" exporters:
- Qatar - The traditional "sleeping giant" has awakened, but not from a good life. Iranian attacks and regional instability have led to direct capacity losses. Plans to increase production are now up in the air, labeled "high risk."
- Australia and Malaysia - Showed stagnation or minimal growth. The technological and logistics ceiling has already been reached.
- Russia - A paradox. Demand for its LNG has paradoxically increased (Europe continues to buy through "gray" schemes), but sanctions pressure and direct attacks on infrastructure make every new cubic meter of production a feat.
The rise of US influence isn't just about the shale revolution. It's about a geopolitical window that has slammed shut on competitors.
The loss of Qatari capacity amid the escalation with Iran created a vacuum in the spot market. And the US filled it instantly. Yes, logistics to Asia or Europe are more complicated than for Qatar. But in the current situation, supply stability outweighs cost.
Buyers today pay not for gas, but for predictability. American LNG is gas without the risk of being hit by a missile in the Strait of Hormuz. It's expensive, but it's an insurance policy.
Verdict by Indossant
The LNG market has ceased to be a "seller's market" in the classic sense. It's now a market for those who have operating plants and no warships queuing at ports.
The US is using its capabilities not simply to profit, but to cement its status as a "supplier of last resort." While in 2020 it could be called a "swing producer," now it's the sole driver.
The only question is whether Washington will be able to maintain the momentum if the conflict in the Middle East suddenly abates. But as of now, the slogan "Buy American!" remains the most rational strategy for LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) exports from the US.